NFL odds: Tom Brady’s career from a sports betting perspective

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It’s official, quarterback Tom Brady is retiring.

The legendary QB announced his decision on Wednesday via social media, ending a career many consider the greatest of all time.

Let’s dive into Brady’s run from a sports betting perspective.

Sportsbooks might send Brady a nice retirement gift, as the former New England Patriots and Tampa Bay Buccaneers quarterback wrapped up his tenure in the league as the second-greatest QB of all time against the spread in the regular season.


TB12 finished his overall career 213-157-11 (58%) against the spread (ATS). Even more impressive? Brady finished 51-13 (80%) ATS as an underdog. 

When looking at just regular-season games, he went 190-136-7 ATS, covering the spread 58.3% of the time. That’s downright astonishing, and for context, if you had bet on Brady in every single game of his career without a second thought, you would have turned a tidy profit.

“Games featuring Tom Brady were always among the most bet on, and nine times out of 10, the public was backing Brady’s team,” FOX Bet trading operations senior manager Dylan Brossman said. “‘Don’t bet against Brady,’ was consistently reinforced as a winning strategy, much to the chagrin of sportsbooks.”

And for that, sports bettors and NFL fans alike, thank you, Tom.

If TB12 finished second, who’s first?

Of all quarterbacks to start at least 125 regular-season games in the Super Bowl Era, the only QB with a higher cover percentage than Brady is San Francisco 49ers great Joe Montana, who went 101-63 ATS in regular-season games for his career (61.6%).

So once again, the battle for the title of GOAT comes down to Brady and Montana.


  • Joe Montana: 61.6% cover percentage (101-63 ATS)
  • Tom Brady: 58.3% cover percentage (186-124-6 ATS)
  • Alex Smith: 58.2% cover percentage (96-69-2 ATS)
  • Donovan McNabb: 56.8% (88-67-6 ATS)
  • Aaron Rodgers: 56.4% cover percentage (124-96-3 ATS)

*Super Bowl era, in regular-season games; minimum 125 starts

As for if Tom is really done, Brossman doesn’t think Brady will come back out of retirement as he did last year.

Odds on Brady’s Retirement:

Stays Retired (-1000)
Plays another NFL game (+650)

“It feels like he’s legitimately done this time, thus the odds,” the bookmaker concluded.

Here’s a breakdown of how Brady performed for sports bettors over his career:

– In his 10 Super Bowls, Brady won as the underdog or covered as the favorite five times, lost as the favorite three times and won but didn’t cover the spread twice.

– Brady and his team started the season as the betting favorite or co-favorite to win the Super Bowl nine times. Brady ended up winning the Super Bowl that season twice (Super Bowls LI and LIII).

– Brady was 25-22-1 ATS (53.2%) and 35-13 straight up (SU) (72.9%) in the postseason.

– Brady not only went 190-136-7 ATS (58.3%) but also 251-82 SU (75.4%) in the regular season.

– Including the playoffs, Brady has more covers ATS (215) than three teams have regular-season wins in franchise history (Carolina Panthers 212, Jacksonville Jaguars 189 and Houston Texans 142).

– Brady was 35-17-1 ATS (67.3%) and 30-23 SU (56.6%) when an underdog in regular-season games.

– Brady was 97-63-5 ATS (60.6%) and 137-28 SU (83.0%) at home in the regular season.

– Brady was 15-12-1 ATS (55.6%) and 22-6 SU (78.6%) at home in the playoffs.

– Brady was 7-4 ATS (63.6%) and 7-4 SU (63.6%) when an underdog in the playoffs.

– Brady was 3-3 ATS (50%) and 5-1 SU (83.3%) as a double-digit favorite in the playoffs.

– Brady was 42-36 ATS (53.8%) and 70-8 SU (89.7%) as a double-digit favorite in the regular season.

– Brady hit the over in the over/under (O/U) in 52.1% of the regular-season games he started.

– Brady hit the over in 50% of playoff games he started.

– In Brady’s last 19 seasons, he never entered the regular season with odds higher than +1200 (12-1 in 2010) to win the Super Bowl.

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