Porto have had two low scoring games in Group B and Dan Fitch is expecting another when they travel to AC Milan.
AC Milan 2.0811/10 v Porto 3.8514/5; The Draw 3.7511/4
Wednesday 3 November, 17:45
Live on BT Sport ESPN
Milan yet to win a point
It’s an absolute must-win game for AC Milan when they host Porto on Wednesday night.
Milan have lost all three of the games in Group B so far and are four points adrift of third placed Porto. Yet with second placed Atletico Madrid also having four points and facing a difficult away trip to Liverpool, a win could put Milan right back into the mix for last-16 qualification and certainly the Europa League spot.
The Italian giants can count themselves unlucky not to have a point at this stage. They were ahead against both Liverpool and Atletico, before eventually losing and were only defeated 1-0 by Porto in the reverse fixture. Their Serie A form has been superb. Milan’s 2-1 win away at Roma on Sunday, extended their unbeaten start to the season to eleven games (W10 D1).
Porto are also unbeaten in their domestic league (P10 W8 D2) and are top of the Primeira Liga on goal difference. Their haul of four points in the Champions League from a difficult run of fixtures that included a trip to Atletico where they drew 0-0, is a good one.
Porto will keep it tight
AC Milan are the favourites at 2.0811/10, with the draw at 3.7511/4 and Porto at 3.8514/5.
The hosts have won all five of their home games in Serie A this season, so their price seems reasonable. It does however, seem a risk to back them when a draw would be an extremely good result for Porto.
Aside from their 5-1 thrashing by Liverpool, Porto have kept it very tight in their other two group games and they will no doubt employ a similar strategy on Wednesday. Under 2.5 goals seems value at 2.021/1.