The NFL divisional round is here! This means it’s time to get in on the action and budget a few bucks for some best bets.
Now, if you’re not feeling confident about betting the moneyline or even the spread on this slate of games, there’s an entire player prop market to explore. And our FOX Sports betting experts have you covered with the five best player props for this weekend’s exciting matchups.
Trevor Lawrence downplays Chiefs home-field advantage at Arrowhead Stadium
Trevor Lawrence and the Jacksonville Jaguars are 8.5-point underdogs against the Patrick Mahomes-led Kansas City Chiefs.
Jason McIntyre: Christian Kirk Over 66.5 receiving yards
When these teams faced off the last time, Christian Kirk had a massive day. He caught nine passes for 105 yards and two touchdowns with 12 targets. Last week against the Chargers, Kirk had 14 targets in a game the Jaguars trailed 27-0. Jacksonville has trailed at halftime in its last two games — and both were win-or-go-home games. I expect the same here.
Also, remember that Kansas City struggles really badly defending top receivers.
McIntyre: Travis Kelce Under 81.5 receiving yards
For another player prop, I’m going with Kansas City’s Travis Kelce Under 81.5 yards.
This isn’t because the Jaguars rank 32nd in the NFL defending tight ends or because they were lit up by Chargers tight end Gerald Everett last week (6-109-1). Expect a lot of two-high safety looks from the Jaguars, who want to take away the big play that crushed them in the earlier meeting between these two squads.
K.C. averaged 7.8 yards per play in the regular season matchup, and Kelce caught six passes for 81 yards and a touchdown in that game. One catch went for 46 yards. The Chiefs’ offensive weapons are all healthy this time around, so expect Andy Reid to spread the ball around.
McIntyre: Josh Allen Over 45.5 rushing yards
It was weird seeing Josh Allen only run four times for 20 yards against the Dolphins last week. In the season finale against the Patriots, he kept throwing it rather than tucking and running (nine carries, 16 yards). But if you look at the most important games of the season — in real nail-biters — the Bills lean heavily on Allen and his 6-foot-5, 245-pound frame to carry the team. He had 10-77 in the 32-29 win over Miami; 10-78 in a difficult Thanksgiving game against Detroit. He rushed for 86 yards in the loss to the Jets and had 84 yards against the Vikings. Allen was third in the NFL in interceptions, and there’s a chance this confusing Bengals defense will force Allen into mistakes.
The fact he took seven sacks last week is mildly alarming. Makes you wonder if he’s hurt.
In what should be a close game, Buffalo’s best offense is with the ball in Josh Allen’s hands, running for first downs, so give me his rushing prop to go over the number.
Herd Hierarchy: Cowboys, Eagles lead the way in Colin’s Top Divisional Round teams
Colin Cowherd reveals his final Herd Hierarchy of the season.
There’s a pattern forming in San Francisco.
Rookie quarterback Brock Purdy is a perfect 6-0 since being thrust into the starting role after Jimmy Garoppolo went down against Tampa Bay. Purdy has been surprisingly calm, cool and collected under center and his quick decision-making has unleashed the potential of the potent Niners’ offense.
And one playmaker’s home-run plays have skyrocketed with Purdy.
Receiver Brandon Aiyuk has made serious moves as of late. He’s racked up 73, 59, 101, 81, 19 and 57 receiving yards over the last six games and that’s mostly because Christian McCaffery, Deebo Samuel and George Kittle are all healthy. It’s impossible to account for everybody, and while Aiyuk might technically be the “fourth weapon,” he doesn’t draw the coverage the others do.
As long as he gets five or six targets, this should cash again.
Has Brock Purdy passed every test to make it to a Super Bowl?
Nick Wright, Chris Broussard, and Kevin Wildes discuss whether they have officially become believers in Brock Purdy.
Geoff Schwartz: Ezekiel Elliott under 35.5
This is a low total, but I think it reflects the tall task the Cowboys rushing attack has this weekend against the 49ers’ defense. The 49ers’ defense is second in rushing defensive efficiency, rush yards allowed per game and rush attempts faced per game. They are often ahead, so teams are throwing to come back. The 49ers’ defensive line has the advantage over the beat-up Cowboys offensive line and rushing will be difficult.
The Cowboys split reps between Tony Pollard and Elliott, so Elliott is only getting a handful of opportunities to get over this number. More importantly, his skill set isn’t ideal against these 49ers. He’s lost a step and isn’t as quick anymore. Against this Niners’ defense, that is not ideal for gaining yards on the ground.
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