
United have blown Champions League hopes
In another time and another place, Manchester United would be rubbing their hands with glee having walked through the door left open by fellow top-four hopefuls Arsenal and Spurs.
But while the two North London sides have taken it in turns to wobble, United just haven’t had it in them to take advantage.
Now their position looks hopeless. The Red Devils have just four games to play and are six behind Arsenal, who have five remaining. In short, United have messed this up royally.
In the last five games they’ve managed to muster just four points: three in a 3-2 home win over doomed Norwich thanks to a get-out-of-jail Cristiano Ronaldo hat-trick and one via a 1-1 draw with Leicester.
The positive spin is that those points came at home while another Ronaldo treble saw them defeat Tottenham 3-2 at Old Trafford.
But before that, the locals had seen United held 0-0 by Watford and they followed the Spurs win with a 1-0 home loss to Atletico Madrid in the Champions League.
They head into this one having conceded seven times in their last two games after losses to Liverpool (4-1; played horribly) and Arsenal (3-1; played better but still not good enough).
Chelsea have stuttered but away form superb
Chelsea have had their problems too in recent times, crashing out of the Champions League to Real Madrid and suffering home thumpings by Brentford and Arsenal.
They’d let in 11 goals in those three defeats at Stamford Bridge before steadying the ship with a 1-0 home win over West Ham at the weekend.
That kept them five points above Arsenal and with a game in hand, so third place is looking more and more likely.
Chelsea have found it difficult being in no-man’s land. They’ve not been good enough to keep pace with Manchester City and Liverpool and have never really felt the chasing pack beneath them put on any pressure.
But at least it’s hard to find any fault with their away record; in fact, it’s been superb. Chelsea have won their last nine road games and that includes a 3-2 victory in the Bernabeu and a 6-0 thrashing of Southampton in their last two away fixtures.
Chelsea clear favourites but Draw looks best
Does history mean anything with this United?
If so, the hosts are unbeaten in their last eight Premier League matches against Chelsea at Old Trafford although five of those were draws.
In fact, adding in Stamford Bridge matches and Chelsea haven’t won any of their last eight Premier League encounters against United. Again, five of those were stalemates.
The match market for Thursday night shows Man Utd at 3.259/4, Chelsea 2.3411/8 and The Draw 3.711/4.
Who do we trust? It’s easy to despair at United and wade into Chelsea but perhaps there’s just a feeling that Ralf Rangnick’s men have a little more incentive now that they know Erik ten Hag will officially take over. If the Dutchman is to have a big impact, now is the time to show him that they want to go on that journey.
That thought is tempered by United just not being that good. Overall, it seems reasonable to accept the current circumstances, lean on a bit of history and back the biggest of the three options. Yep, take The Draw at 3.711/4.
Ronaldo and Mount look good Bet Builder options
Cristiano Ronaldo has six goals in his last two home games and, although it’s Chelsea, 13/10 anytime seems pretty reasonable.
In addition, surely he’ll be on penalty duties after Bruno Fernandes’ fluffed spot-kick at Arsenal.
For Chelsea, I’ll again go with the in-form option and side with Mason Mount.
The England ace has three goals in his last two away games after a brace at Southampton and another in the 3-1 win at Real Madrid.
On the Bet Builder, Ronaldo to score anytime and Mount to score anytime pays 8.515/2 and that’s worth a punt.
For those just wanting to play the basic Both Teams to Score, that’s the clear favourite at 1.728/11. The No option is 2.3211/8.
It’s more balanced on the goal count with Over 2.5 trading at 1.9110/11 and Under 2.5 at 2.0811/10.
Opta stats
Manchester United have lost three of their last four Premier League games (W1), more than they had in their previous 18 (W9 D7 L2). The Red Devils haven’t lost three consecutive league games since December 2015 under Louis van Gaal, while they haven’t conceded at least three goals in three straight league games since December 1978.