Atletico Madrid 5.24/1 v Man City 1.834/5, the Draw 3.7511/4
Live on BT Sport Extra
The tie is finely poised with Man City 1-0 up from the first leg and 1.141/7 to qualify. But could Simeone get the better of Guardiola in Madrid?
Paul Higham says: “Remember that away goals no longer come into play so any one-goal victory for Atletico will send the game into extra time – where it’s 11.010/1 for either team to win it in 120 minutes.
“Any team to win it via the dreaded penalty shootout is 109/1 and definitely in play, but this Atletico seem a lot more vulnerable than they have been in previous years and City are rightly huge favourites.
“Guardiola is hardly one to play for a draw but he’ll be happy enough playing his usual possession game and seeing just how quickly Atletico start to get desperate.
“An early goal changes the game for both sides and Atletico have to come out and play in front of their home fans, but the bookies have no idea if there’ll be goals or not with hardly any difference in the odds for under/over 2.5 goals and both teams to score.
“You always feel City will score in every game and Atletico have so many attacking options as well that I’m happier to go for the slight outsiders in both with over 2.5 goals at 2.111/10 and both teams to score at 2.01/1.”
Paul’s bet: Back both teams to score in first half @ 5.04/1
European football expert Andy Brassell discusses some misconceptions about Atletico before arguing that they can beat Man City on Wednesday…
: “Atletico have the attacking tools, led by the excellent João Félix and supplemented again with Ángel Correa after he served a domestic suspension at the weekend, to make it tough for any team – and enough individual quality to mean that coherent team play is not entirely necessary.
“What Simeone needs of his men is the bravery to make a fast start, which they showed they can do against Manchester United in the early stages at the atmospheric Wanda Metropolitano in the last round (to bust another cliché, they did similar in their pomp to Bayern Munich and Real Madrid in this competition), to see if there are any weary City legs after Sunday’s titanic tussle with Liverpool.
“The lesser consequences of conceding an away goal should be their Dutch courage. Atlético need to quickly snap out of their recent funk, but they absolutely have the ability to do so.”
Andy’s bet: Back Atlético Madrid @ 5.24/1
Dan Fitch has more faith than some of his colleagues in City and shows how you can back the Blues in a Bet Builder…
Dan says: “Atletico’s loss to City ended an eight match unbeaten run (W7 D1). They then followed the first-leg result with another defeat at the weekend, when they lost 1-0 away at Mallorca in La Liga.
“Atletico have the talent within their squad to bounce back from such a disappointment against most teams, but then Manchester City aren’t most teams. Having gained an advantage in the first-leg, we have to expect City to ultimately get the job done.
“As City only need a draw, it makes sense to play it safe and back them to merely avoid defeat in the Double Chance market at 1/7 on the Sportsbook. To that we’ll add under 2.5 goals at 3/4, which has landed in four of their last six games.
“Another bet that has landed in four of City’s last six games, is under 1.5 first-half goals at 1/3. This treble creates a Bet Builder at odds of 2.1511/10.”
Liverpool 1.3130/100 v Benfica 11.010/1, the Draw 6.611/2
Live on BT Sport Extra
Liverpool carry a comfortable 3-1 lead into their second leg at home to Benfica so find out how our Portuguese football specialist thinks you can profit.
Jamie Pacheco says: “It’s interesting that Liverpool are only slightly shorter at 1.330/100 than they were last week in Lisbon, when they were 1.42/5. The first reason they’re not any shorter is that they don’t need to win to go through.
“Punters will remember they were strong favourites to beat Inter at home after taking a two-goal first leg lead, only to lose 1-0 at Anfield.
“The second is that they may rest a couple of important players, at least from the start, given their schedule. It’s by far the most likely outcome, the home win, but that doesn’t make it a great price…
“Over 2.5 goals should be on the cards here. It’s not impossible that Liverpool play a strong side, try to score as many as possible and this becomes a very lopsided contest.”
Jamie’s bet: Back Diogo Jota to score @ 2.111/10
Dan picks his second Bet Builder of the evening, makes the case for an away goal at Anfield and identifies a player with a penchant for scoring against strong opponents…
Dan says: “The Portuguese giants won 3-1 against Belenenses at the weekend, after losing their previous two games. Darwin Nunez scored a hat-trick, with the young Uruguayan now having scored 31 goals in 36 appearances this season, which includes five goals in this season’s Champions League.
“With those goals coming against the likes of Barcelona, Bayern Munich, Ajax and the first-leg against Liverpool, Nunez looks massively overpriced at 3/1 to score. To that bet, we will add a Liverpool win to our Bet Builder at 1/4.
“Finally we will go with there to be goals in both halves at 1/3. It’s landed in each of Liverpool’s last three games and creates a treble that’s priced at just under 7.413/2.”
Dan’s Bet Builder: Back Liverpool, Nunez to score and goals in both halves @ 7.413/2