Our football props column is following the data for a bet in the Real Madrid v Chelsea Champions League quarter-final on Tuesday…
It’s back to an old favourite bet on Tuesday night, courtesy of referee Szymon Marciniak.
The Polish official loves a penalty, as indicated by the fact he’s awarded one in 11 of his last 20 UEFA club games.
He gave two in his last Champions League outing – Juventus’ 3-0 home defeat to Villarreal, a game which became stretched in the closing stages as the Spaniards looked to play on the break.
It’s not hard to see something similar happening here given Chelsea’s need to attack to try to get back into the tie having lost the home leg 3-1 last week.
Karim Benzema caused all sorts of problems to the Chelsea defence in that game and Antonio Rudiger and co may well seek to adopt a much tighter marking system on the Frenchman which could lead to greater attention from the official.
Real lead La Liga for penalties awarded, while only Liverpool have won more than Chelsea in the Premier League.
As you can probably imagine, the stats aren’t so good in terms of spot-kicks conceded, although Chelsea do sit joint seventh in that PL list.
For good measure, Marciniak has also awarded a spot-kick in eight of his 18 games in the Polish Ekstraklasa this season so I’m prepared to back the 6/4 about another penalty being given in this contest.