It’s time for the first Saturday night race of the season.
Saturday night’s race at Martinsville (7:30 p.m. ET, FS1) is the first of three Saturday night races over the course of the 2022 Cup Series season. And it’s a race that’s 100 laps shorter than typical Martinsville races. The race has been cut from 500 laps to 400 and is set to be the shortest scheduled Martinsville race since the fall race in 1956 at the track.
The shortening of the race shouldn’t change the racing style too much. If anything, it means drivers will be more aggressive throughout more of the race. Those last 100 laps can take a while if there are a bunch of cautions and those cautions provide opportunities for drivers who are a lap down to get their laps back. You could see some drivers in danger of getting lapped try to keep the leaders at bay as much as possible.
It’ll also be fascinating to see how tire wear affects the race. Sunday’s race at Richmond had an intriguing finish because of the time that Denny Hamlin and Kevin Harvick made up on fresh tires to finish 1-2. Drivers won’t be able to close like that on fresh tires at Martinsville, but significant tire wear will make tire strategy quite different. We’ve seen drivers and teams stay out on older tires at Martinsville during cautions to grab track position. If tires are slowing down a lot over the course of a tire run, those track position plays aren’t going to be as strong.
Here’s what you need to know to bet Saturday night’s race. The race weekend begins Thursday night with the Truck Series and the Xfinity Series races on Friday night. All odds are via BetMGM.
The favorites
Martin Truex Jr. (+500)
Chase Elliott (+700)
Denny Hamlin (+800)
Kyle Busch (+800)
Ryan Blaney (+800)
Hamlin and Blaney have the best average finish at Martinsville among active drivers. Busch is fourth, Elliott is sixth and Truex is eighth. Hamlin has five wins in 32 starts while Truex has three wins. Busch has two and Elliott has one. Truex is the favorite because his three wins have come in the last five races. He’s finished outside the top 20 at Martinsville just once dating back to the start of the 2015 season. Hamlin led over 100 laps in the fall race at Martinsville before he went spinning after a collision with Alex Bowman.
Good mid-tier value
Kevin Harvick (+2200)
Tyler Reddick (+2200)
Harvick has finished in the top 10 in nearly half of his Martinsville starts. His lone win at the track came in 2011 and he’s finished inside the top 20 in his last 14 races at the track. Reddick has one top-10 finish in four starts and has finished on the lead lap just twice. But he could be a constant presence near the front of the field on Saturday.
Don’t bet this driver
Alex Bowman (+1400)
Bowman won the last race at Martinsville but we’re not sure his late-race voodoo magic is going to work again here.
Looking for a long shot?
Brad Keselowski (+3300)
We may be stretching the definition of a long shot here a bit, but Keselowski’s odds are above +3000. And he’s also been really good at Martinsville. He’s finished outside the top 10 in just seven of his 24 starts and his Roush Fenway Keselowski team showed good speed at Richmond.
