Back Accy to still be a hit at the Wham
Accrington Stanley v Gillingham
Saturday 26th March, kick-off 15:00
Accrington don’t have much to play for other than a mid-table position, and are a full 16 points behind 7th placed Sheffield Wednesday. Gillingham have hauled themselves out of the danger zone for now, and at least have a bit of breathing space over third-from-bottom Morecambe with a two-point cushion.
The Relegation market however still has the Gills in danger at 1.42/5, and this is a tricky time for punters in this league, because as soon as we get to April, prices start to reflect what the team “need” to do rather than what they have achieved.
Neil Harris has improved Gillingham since taking over from Steve Evans – two diametrically opposed characters you will never meet. They’ve lost two of their last five and collected wins against Lincoln and Doncaster on the road (with clean sheets), and that has to be applauded considering they had gone from October to the end of January without any win at all.
Harris was vocal recently – criticising the club’s recruitment and physical shape of the players. He’s after a Head Of Recruitment as barely a game goes by without a player limping off. He said: “We haven’t got the bodies and the recruitment at the club has been a shambles, the conditioning of the players isn’t good enough and ultimately it falls on me to get the best out of the players we have got.”
It was all the more meritorious that they earned a 0-0 against Sheffield Wednesday last weekend – in front of the biggest crowd of the season at Priestfield. They looked the better team for 70 minutes and managed to keep quiet the influential Barry Bannan.
Accrington’s home record of 11 wins and 34 goals is up there with the best of them, but John Coleman’s team are terrible travellers and got smashed 4-0 at Plymouth last Saturday. The rule this season has been back them at the Wham and avoid them on the road.
It’s not a great price on a home win at 1.845/6, but Stanley usually score at home and last failed to find the back of the net in early December on their own patch. Colby Bishop has 11 for the season and is a 13/8 price to Score Anytime on the Sportsbook. Playing him in the Betbuilder with a home win gives a bit more buck to the odds-on win price, and that double pays 3.38. Accrington have won each of their last four home league games, scoring 2+ goals in every game, not since April 2011 have they done so in five successive home games (run of six), and that’s enough to say we should back the hosts to win, even if it’s a short price.
KEY OPTA STAT: Accrington Stanley have lost each of their last three Football League games against Gillingham at the Wham Stadium, having lost just one of their previous four (W2 D1).
Backing the draw again with in-form Greens can see us in profit
Ipswich Town v Plymouth Argyle
Saturday 26th March, kick-off 15:00
While the international break has starved League One devotees of the big guns Rotherham, MK Dons and Wigan, Portman Road will be rocking on Saturday with a game that could have a huge bearing on the promotion and play-off credentials for both.
Ninth-placed Town are 11.010/1 in the Promotion market, with Argyle in fourth and just six points off the leaders Rotherham are half the price at 6.05/1 – a win on Saturday for the Greens could effectively kill off the outside chance of Ipswich – who have only lost once since mid-January.
Last weekend the column successfully played both of these two, with Plymouth beating Accrington easily to net a 1.9210/11 bet, but even better than that; Ipswich’s 1-1 draw earned us a Correct Score win at 7.413/2 and also a 3.412/5 draw selection, and that’s a way I am leaning again.
Bersant Celina’s goal on the counter-attack gave Ipswich a 0-1 lead at the Kassam, and was full reward for a fantastic second-half performance as they swarmed all over the U’s, but Oxford’s late leveller on 95 minutes was a last-gasp goal going FOR the column for once.
Plymouth are motoring – they’ve won six on the spin with six clean sheets and are bordering on Rotherham form. They have collected 18 points in March and gained a 2-0 win over Cheltenham on Tuesday night to cap off a memorable spell. I was pleased to see Danny Mayor score, a gorgeous finish too, as he’s always been a lovely player to watch at this level.
Steven Schumacher had a big job to replace Ryan Lowe, but he has excelled. It was also welcome to hear him bring on the talk of promotion rather than to play it down in the afermatch of Tuesday’s three pointer by saying: “”People can mention it as much as they want. We want to get in the play-offs, we want to get promoted, we want to do as well as we possibly can.”
The hosts are hard to beat and have drawn five of their last eight. Indeed, they have been held at home eight times this season and the draw outright looks the bet here. Ipswich have kept a clean sheet in each of their last five league games at Portman Road (W3 D2), the last time they went six such games without conceding was September 1980 as a top-flight side (W6), and that could stand us in good stead in backing a stalemate to make another profit.
Ryan Hardie (10) is the first Plymouth Argyle player to score 10+ away league goals in a season since Reuben Reid in 2013-14 (10 goals), and he’s a 12/5 price to Score Anytime on the Sportsbook.
KEY OPTA STAT: Ipswich have lost just one of their last 11 Football League games against Plymouth at Portman Road (W7 D3), although they’ve scored just one goal in their last four such games (W1 D2 L1).
Addicks look awful value despite recent wins
Doncaster Rovers v Charlton Athletic
Saturday 26th March, kick-off 15:00
Doncaster’s position as one of the worst ever away teams in League One for a spell has painted a gloomy battle down at the foot of the table. Therefore it’s still somewhat staggering they are in with a chance of staying up.
With a sea of losses in the results column, wins are very much needed for recent incumbent Gary McShefferey. They did beat Accrington last month 2-0 at the Keepmoat – although nerly every team beats Stanley on the road.
My first impression here is that Donny are far too big in price at 4.47/2, although I am not expecting a classic as according to Opta stats, Rovers have failed to score in their last three Football League games, having already done so in a four-game period in the league in August this season, only Peterborough (20) have failed to score in more league games across the EFL this season (19).
Charlton were in danger of losing their way under Johnnie Jackson following a promising start, and their impressive high-intensity press was lacking in a horror run of five successive losses. A recent pair of victories against Gillingham and Burton (1-0 and 2-0) have assuaged any outside fears of relegation. Their season is meandering into nothing unfortunately and with four losses on the road in their last four, they look an awful price at 1.9520/21.
It’s the old adage: never back odds-on away from home. They are certainly a good laying price and you will have two running for you, but we can play the Draw No Bet on the hosts here at an attractive 3.412/5. Striker Kieran Agard will miss the remainder of Rovers’ season following a hamstring injury last week against Fleetwood, while Ethan Galbraith and Mipo Odubeko are away on international duty.
I can’t see too many goals, as Rovers can easily get frustrated as they lack a final product in the end third – and that has come from bad decision-making recently according to McSheffrey. They did keep a rare clean sheet though against Fleetwood and this could be an Under 2.5 game too.
KEY OPTA STAT: Doncaster have lost their last two Football League games against Charlton, they haven’t lost three consecutive games against the Addicks since September 2008 (run of four).
