Canaries on a good run
Norwich can look forward to an FA Cup fifth-round visit to Liverpool after their 1-0 win at Wolves on Saturday but their more pressing task is Premier League survival as they try to continue their recent spell of good form.
The FA Cup victory was the fourth in five matches in all competitions for Dean Smith’s side and their third in a row.
The two Premier League wins in that run have been against fellow strugglers Everton (2-1 at home) and Watford (3-0 away), which hastened the departure of both opposing managers and lifted Norwich out of the relegation zone.
Striker Josh Sargent, who scored the first two goals in the win over Watford, had to miss the cup game through illness. Goalkeeper Tim Krul is still out with a shoulder injury, with Angus Gunn set to deputise again.
Olise a bright spark for Palace
Crystal Palace also progressed in the FA Cup with a 2-0 win over Hartlepool and were rewarded with another home tie against Championship side Stoke City in the fifth round.
That victory was a bounce-back from a 3-1 home league defeat by Liverpool in the Premier League that left Patrick Vieira’s side 13th.
Vieira has brought a more attacking outlook and one of the beneficiaries has been Michael Olise, who has forced his way into the team over the past month and scored again in the FA Cup on Saturday.
Olise could well line up again in a front three with Jean-Philippe Mateta and Eberechi Eze, with Wilfried Zaha waiting for his first start since his red card against Tottenham on December 26.
James Tomkins and James McArthur might be involved, although this is likely to come too soon for Cheikhou Kouyate after he started in Sunday’s African Nations Cup final win for Senegal.
The question mark over Norwich’s recent uplift is whether they have simply beaten teams at a low ebb and will be unable to sustain that form against better teams.
Before the wins over Everton and Watford, the Canaries had lost six Premier League matches in a row without scoring a goal. That run included a 3-0 defeat at Palace on December 28, with all the goals coming in the first half.
The key factor in Norwich’s form under Smith is probably the level of opposition. The new manager has taken something from five of his 11 games in charge and three of those matches were against teams in the bottom five.
Smith’s record against teams above the strugglers is W1 D1 L6 and, while Palace are not far above in 13th, the recent defeat at Selhurst Park indicates Norwich will have to improve significantly to bridge the gap.
Being at home is one reason why that might happen. Both matches where Smith has taken something against teams above the strugglers were at Carrow Road (a 2-1 win over Southampton and a goalless draw against Wolves in his first two games).
Palace can’t be relied upon to reproduce the level of their home win over Norwich on the road.
The Eagles rank seventh on home form but a lowly 17th away, with only one win in 10 games on their travels. That victory, remarkably, was 2-0 at leaders Manchester City in October.
Vieira’s side have been competitive in most of their away games and their only heavy losses have been at Chelsea, Liverpool and Tottenham (all 3-0 against those top-seven sides).
Palace’s overall record against teams below them in the table as the league restarts is W2 D3 L1, which indicates a difficult task for Norwich to win but also a reason to be wary of the visitors at odds of 2.226/5.
Palace look the better team but there is not much form on their side to make them a fairly short-odds banker.
A goals bet might be the way to go here.
Palace are on a scoring run of six matches in all competitions and, after three blanks in their first six league games under Vieira, they have been shut out only by Leeds, Manchester United and Tottenham in 16 matches since then.
All of those blanks were on the road, which raises concern, but Norwich have managed only two clean sheets in their 11 league games under Smith.
With Palace keeping only one clean sheet on the road (again remarkably that was at Manchester City), goals look likely here.
Norwich under Smith have scored in four of their six games against teams outside the top eight (albeit Palace away was one of the exceptions) and both teams to score is the selection at 1.9210/11.
An alternative at slightly bigger odds is over 2.5 goals at 2.26/5.
Opta Stat
Norwich have won their last two Premier League games, netting 38% of their total goals this season in these victories (5/13). The Canaries last won three consecutive top-flight league games in December 2012. Norwich are 3.65 to win.
