For the first six seasons of NASCAR’s Championship Race format, Homestead-Miami Speedway was the track where the Cup was earned. With the season opener up the road at Daytona International Speedway, this race provided a bookend to the season. Parity there has been strong since the knockout format was instituted and since 2014 there has been a string of eight different winners.
Throughout its history, it has taken experience to win on this track. Since Homestead instituted progressive banking in 2007 only two drivers have earned a career win less than 10th. Denny Hamlin scored his eighth victory there in 2009 and another Young Gun would have to wait until last season to join him. That is a big part of the reason William Byron faced odds of +3500 entering the Dixie Vodka 400.
Since the season finale was moved to Phoenix Raceway in 2020, Homestead has bounced around the schedule. It was scheduled earlier in the season in 2020, but the disruption of the calendar by the COVID-19 pandemic moved that year’s race to June. As the series continued to try and get their mind around how many team members could be at the track in 2021, and while they were still sensitive to travel schedules, it was moved to the third race of the season immediately following two races in Daytona.
In 2022, Homestead moves to the end of the calendar once more. It won’t matter much to the race handicap because this is the furthest south one can go in the continental United States and the weather is constant and mild.
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Moving the race from the finale seems to be having another effect, however. In the history of the knockout format, the Championship 4 drivers have won every race and they have dominated the top five. There were not a lot of surprise contenders at Homestead. The reason for this is likely two-fold because these are the drivers with the most momentum and over the course of the season, they have earned the respect of their competitors – for the most part.
No one wants to be the driver known for wrecking one of the title contenders or for negatively impacting their chance at winning. Minute factors have a huge impact when fractions of a second equals the difference of feet on the track. Since the finale has moved to Phoenix, the trend of favorites running strong has carried over.
It’s too soon to draw conclusions, but the past two years have raised questions about the changing personality of Homestead.
Hamlin won in 2020 for the third time on this track. It was his 40th career victory. Chase Elliott and Ryan Blaney crossed under the checkers second and third – no real surprises there – but five of the next six drivers could legitimately be called longshots: rookie Tyler Reddick finished fourth, Aric Almirola was fifth, Austin Dillon was seventh, Christopher Bell was eighth, and Byron finished ninth.
Last year, Byron led the most laps in route to victory, including 100 of the final 107 circuits. Reddick finished second with Michael McDowell posting a sixth, Ryan Newman in seventh, and Bowman in ninth. That means about 50 percent of the top 10 at Homestead has been made up of drivers with long odds for the outright win during the past two seasons.
The outright win odds are likely to be high enough for more than half the field to warrant spreading your money around. And if sportsbook traders don’t latch onto the trend of longshots in the top five at Homestead, you may be able to find some decent lines for top-three and -five bets.
2022 Race (Round of 12, Race 3)
October 23, Dixie Vodka 400
Active Winners
3: Denny Hamlin
2: Kyle Busch
1: William Byron, Joey Logano, Martin Truex, Jr., Kevin Harvick
Top-fives
12: Kevin Harvick
7: Martin Truex, Jr.
5: Kyle Busch, Denny Hamlin
4: Joey Logano, Kyle Larson
3: Kurt Busch, Brad Keselowski
2: Chase Elliott, Aric Almirola, Tyler Reddick
1: Erik Jones, Ryan Blaney, William Byron
Current Streaks
Kyle Busch: 7 top-10s; 7 lead lap finishes
William Byron: 2 top-10s; 2 lead lap finishes
Austin Dillon: 8 lead lap finishes (all); running at the end of all 8 races
Christopher Bell: 2 lead lap finishes (all); running at the end of both races
Brad Keselowski: 2 lead lap finishes
Michael McDowell: 2 lead lap finishes
Kevin Harvick: running at the end of all 19 races
Denny Hamlin: running at the end of all 17 races
Aric Almirola: running at the end of all 12 races
Ryan Blaney: running at the end of all 7 races
Alex Bowman: running at the end of all 7 races
Chris Buescher: running at the end of all 6 races
Chase Elliott: running at the end of all 6 races
Erik Jones: running at the end of all 5 races
BJ McLeod: running at the end of all 4 races
Ryan Preece: running at the end of all 4 races
Bubba Wallace: running at the end of all 4 races
Ross Chastain: running at the end of all 3 races
Cole Custer: running at the end of 2 (all) races
Quin Houff: running at the end of 2 (all) races
Tyler Reddick: running at the end of 2 (all) races
First-time Winners
None; William Byron won his second race in the 2021 Dixie Vodka 400
2021 Race
February 28, Dixie Vodka 400
1. William Byron (3500), 2. Tyler Reddick (2500), 3. Martin Truex, Jr. (775), 4. Kyle Larson (900), 5. Kevin Harvick (625)
Similarly-configured, 1.5-mile tracks: Homestead, Texas, Charlotte (oval), Kansas, Las Vegas, Atlanta.
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