Midweek Football Cheat Sheet: The best bets in one place

Midweek Football Cheat Sheet: The best bets in one place

There are two Premier League matches on Wednesday and one on Thursday…

Wednesday

Chelsea 1.434/9 v Brighton 9.417/2, the Draw 5.04/1
Wednesday, 19:30
Live on Amazon Prime

Two teams boosted by much-needed wins last time out meet at Stamford Bridge on Wednesday evening…

Dave Tindall says: “Those who took short prices on Chelsea to win at home against Burnley and Everton will surely shy away from the hosts.

“And when adding in the 1-1 draw with Manchester United, Tuchel’s men have drawn three of their last four home league games. It would have been all four but for a last-gasp winner against Leeds after being awarded a penalty.

“As for recent head-to-heads, that should strike further caution into Chelsea backers. This fixture ended 0-0 last year while two of the last three meetings have seen Brighton grab a point.

Chelsea have played eight times in December, the last four on the 16th, 19th, 22nd and 26th. Brighton have gone into combat on just four occasions, with just one outing since the 15th (the 2-0 win over Brentford on Boxing Day).”

Dave’s bet: Back the draw @ 4.94/1

Blackpool 4.1 v Middlesbrough 2.0811/10, the Draw 3.613/5
Wednesday, 19:45

Chris Wilder’s side are up to fifth and look a good bet to consolidate their play-off bid on Wednesday.

Jack Critchley says: “Boro have the second highest xG in the division across the last four games, producing an average of 1.80. They’ve also been giving up very few chances and although the Tricky Trees missed some decent chances on Sunday, Boro’s pressing style doesn’t allow the opposition too many opportunities to carve out clearcut openings. Only in-form Blackburn have conceded fewer goals across the last five games than Wilder’s side and they should be able to swarm all over mid-table Blackpool on Wednesday evening.

“The Seasiders were in control against Huddersfield on Boxing Day before Jordan Gabriel’s avoidable dismissal edged the game in the Terriers favour. Although their performances have been decent enough, Neil Critchley’s men have won just one of their last nine matches and only Peterborough and Swansea have conceded more goals than the Fylde Coast club across the last five Championship matches.”

Jack’s bet: Back Middlesbrough @ 2.35/4

Sutton 1.9210/11 v Colchester 4.67/2, the Draw 3.711/4
Wednesday, 19:45

Sutton are the surprise package in League Two this season and should be able to overcome their visitors from Essex.

Ian Lamont says: “Sutton have won their past three home games, while Colchester have not scored in six games on their travels.

“They have mustered two points in those six though (in fact all three of their goalless draws have been outside Essex), making a draw at 4.03/1 not impossible. Hayden Mullins’ men have the joint fewest goals on the road, with six. Sutton have 17 at home. They have conceded nine which, from 10 games at Gander Green Lane, might sneak us into over 2.5 goals territory, available at 2.26/5.”

Ian’s bet: Back Sutton and over 2.5 goals @ 3.7511/4

Brentford 20.019/1 v Man City 1.171/6, the Draw 10.09/1
Wednesday, 20:15
Live on Amazon Prime

Man City are putting distance between themselves and their title rivals, so a win in west London would round off their year nicely.

Steve Rawlings says: “Following their bizarre 6-3 victory at home to Leicester on Boxing Day, the Citizens have won nine Premier League games in-a-row and having been matched at a high of 3.15, they’ve now been matched at a low of just 1.25 to win their fourth title in five seasons.

Sterling.jpg

“A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush and three points is always better than a game in hand so the fact that they’ve been able to plough on through over the last couple of weeks, while most clubs have seen matches postponed due to the pandemic, has been a massive plus for Pep’s charges.

“Having played 19 games to reach the midway point of the season, City are currently six points in front of Liverpool and Chelsea, and Pep’s men are going to take some stopping.”

Steve’s bet: Back over 4.5 goals @ 3.814/5

Thursday

Notts Forest 2.0621/20 v Huddersfield 4.3100/30, the Draw 3.45
Thursday, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports Football

Two teams with play-off ambitions meet in Thursday’s televised Championship action…

Mark O’Haire says: “Neither Forest nor Huddersfield have been amongst the leading candidates for goals and entertainment in the Championship. The duo are each seeing around 2.50 goals per-game with a similar 50% hit-rate when backing Over 2.5 Goals 2.265/4, although the Reds’ improvements under Steve Cooper have made low-scoring showdowns more commonplace.

Steve Cooper.jpg

“Seven of Forest’s last 10 have produced fewer than three goals, and that’s also been the case in nine of Huddersfield’s past 14 league fixtures, highlighting why the market makes Under 2.5 Goals a skinny 1.664/6 shot. I’m therefore happy to leave the goals options alone and instead focus on the hosts in the Asian Handicap market.”

Mark’s bet: Back Nottingham Forest 0 & -0.5 @ 1.784/5

Sunderland 2.1211/10 v Sheffield Wednesday 3.711/4, the Draw 3.412/5
Thursday, 19:45

The Owls have gained a reputation as draw specialists in League One and look good for another point when they travel to the north east on Thursday.

Alan Dudman says: “The big criticism of the Owls is that they haven’t scored enough goals, and in October Moore was told his team were in the bottom half of the xG table, although he didn’t pay much notice to it by saying: “If it is a stat that you want to run with then we’re going to have to improve on that. It’s not one I go with personally.”

“Sunderland were missing three players through positive Covid-19 tests for Monday’s 3-0 win at Doncaster, and that added to the blow of losing forward Nathan Broadhead. The 23-year-old suffered a bad hamstring injury in the Arsenal Carabao Cup defeat and he’s likely to miss the rest of the season. He will be a big blow as he netted his eighth of the season against the Gunners.

“They are now unbeaten in eight and are a point behind Rotherham, but I fancy going with the draw again in what could be low-scoring game. It’s not a surprise the Under 2.5 price was the shortest of the two on Monday at 1.855/6. Wednesday haven’t had a game since the 11th December, so they will arguably be the fresher of the two.”

Alan’s bet: Back the draw @ 3.55/2

Man Utd 1.422/5 v Burnley 9.28/1, the Draw 5.24/1
20:15
Live on Amazon Prime

Burnley may be in the relegation zone but there’s enough to suggest they can grab a share of the spoils at a big price when they visit Old Trafford.

Jamie Pacheco says: “Given Burnley’s position in the table and that Manchester United are at home, 1.42/5 could be the sort of price the big hitters may have been interested in.

“But if they were to look at the recent history in this fixture at Old Trafford, they may have wanted a rethink. It was a 3-1 win for the Red Devils last time out but before that there was a 2-0- win for Burnley and consecutive 2-2 draws.

“So, are United a lay instead? If they were to play as badly as they did a couple of days ago then yes, certainly. The slight problem is it’s extremely hard to know if Burnley are going to be refreshed and invigorated against a side who must be pretty tired or if they’ll be rusty and off the pace having been out of action for so long.

“But anyway. A draw at 5.24/1 isn’t a price to be sniffed at given Burnley’s record over the past few seasons, how many draws they’ve had of late and the latest team news.”

Jamie’s bet: Back the draw @ 5.24/1