Paul Higham sees value in Paddy Madden’s odds on being booked in Stockport’s FA Cup replay with Bolton on Wednesday night…
“Madden has two bookings in his last three including in the first game against Bolton and he’ll be putting himself about again in front of a full home crowd and national TV cameras.”
Stockport County v Bolton Wanderers
Wednesday 17 November, 19:45 kick-off
Live on BBC Two
There’s a rare treat for us on Wednesday night with a live FA Cup replay on BBC Two with Stockport playing host to Bolton after playing out an entertaining 2-2 draw 10 days ago.
It should be a classic FA Cup atmosphere at a sold-out Edgeley Park as the side sat in 11th in the National League host a Bolton side also in 11th up in League One – and there could be a few more goals in this tie with both sides not exactly rock-solid at the back.
Stockport have kept just two clean sheets in 10 – with one of those coming in the FA Cup qualifying against Stamford, who play a further three rungs down the non-league football ladder.
Wanderers are also dodgy at the back though, having conceded 26 in 17 League One games this season and keeping just three clean sheets. Away from home it’s just two clean sheets from 11 games and up the other end they’ve worryingly failed to score in six of those road trips.
Ian Evatt’s Trotters, then, have a few issues to think about on the short 25-mile trip across Greater Manchester – with a slight calf strain to striker Eoin Doyle one of those worries.
Evatt will field a strong side but despite that, and the fact they play two tiers above the Hatters, they’re still slight odds-against as favourites following a dogged and determined display from the Hatters in that first leg – and two defeats in nine showing they’re a tough side to beat recently.
Bolton have won both games either side of that draw at home in the first meeting, while Stockport’s 1-1 draw with Bromley last time out suggested that maybe they had one eye on their big date in front of a national TV audience.
Scott Quigley will go into the game full of confidence after scoring in his last three games for Stockport – with all three of those also being the first goal of the game.
Given the run he’s on there’s good value in his anytime goalscorer odds of 4.03/1 and the 9.517/2 on him making if four games in a row scoring the first goal will prove a popular option.
That kind of run is a really tough one to maintain though, and instead we’re heading into the bookings market and a price that stood out instantly was that of County striker Paddy Madden at 7.06/1 to pick up a card.
The 31-year-old has been booked in two of his last three games – including in the first Bolton game – and with the home crowd and TV cameras all involved then he’ll be up front letting Bolton know he’s around from the very first minute.
He’s twice the price to be booked than score but given Bolton should have more of the ball and Madden will be chasing more than shooting so he’s far more likely to get his name in the referee’s notebook than on the scoresheet.