LAS VEGAS — Sean Brady is one of the most impressive fighters to come into the UFC in the last four years. He’s 4-0 since debuting in 2019 and has finished his last two fights.
On Saturday, he’s a slight favorite to defeat Michael Chiesa when they meet at Apex in the co-main event of UFC Vegas 43.
If this fight had happened three months ago, chances are good that the odds would be reversed and it would be Chiesa who would be about an 8-5 favorite.
Chiesa, though, was submitted by a Vicente Luque D’Arce choke on Aug. 7 at UFC 265 in Houston and the odds are now vastly different.
Chiesa has only lost two in a row once in his career, during which he’s gone 18-5. When he was still trying to squeeze his welterweight-sized body into a lightweight package in 2017 and 2018, he lost back-to-back fights to Kevin Lee and Anthony Pettis.
He moved up to welterweight and promptly went 4-1. Chiesa has more big-fight experience than Brady and he’s shown an ability to rise to the occasion when his back is to the wall.
So I’ll happily take the plus money and play Chiesa to win.
Tate looks good
Miesha Tate looks physically in phenomenal condition and we know she has the mentality to defeat Ketlen Vieira in the card’s main event.
Vieira is -115 while Tate is -105.
Tate returned to the UFC after a five-year retirement and stopped Marion Reneau in the third round. It’s easy to get caught up in that and immediately tab Tate to win this one, but that would be a mistake.
Reneau’s style was perfectly suited for Tate, while Vieira is much more of a challenge for her.
Vieira has a black belt in both Brazilian Jiu-Jitsu and judo and has good hands. She is, however, coming off a disappointing decision loss in February to Yana Kunitskaya, a bout in which she missed weight.
Vieira has also dropped two of her last three, with a win over Sijara Eubanks sandwiched between losses to Irene Aldana and Kunitskaya.
There is a lot on the line in the bantamweight division in this one, as Vieira is ranked seventh and Tate eighth. A loss to Tate would be two in a row and three of four for Vieira and would likely drop her out of the Top 10.
It would, coincidentally, be three out of four losses for Tate if she were to lose, though the first two of those defeats were in 2016.
Tate’s bulldog mentality and physical strength will help her to get this done. I like Tate and will lay two units on her at -105.
Other bets for UFC Vegas 43
• I’ll lay -105 and take Kyung Ho Kang to defeat Roni Yahya, who is -115.
• I’ll lay -275 and take Adrian Yanez to defeat Davey Grant, who is +200.
• I’ll lay -115 on Terrence McKinney to win over Fares Ziam, who is -105.