Our football props column is backing a 7/2 shot which has landed in 20 of the team’s last 28 competitive matches…
Brazil v Uruguay
Thursday 14 October, 01:30 BST (Fri)
Live on Premier Sports 1 and Betfair Live Video
It’s fair to say that Uruguay have a long-standing reputation as a dirty team.
However, the current squad does not live up to that with their good discipline having regularly rewarded those prepared to back the unders in the booking points markets.
In a system which sees 10 points awarded for a yellow card and 25 for a red, Uruguay have stayed below 20 booking points in 20 of their last 28 competitive internationals – a statistic made all the more impressive by the high number of cards produced in South America.
Ahead of this World Cup qualifier, you can get 7/2 about Uruguay having under 20 booking points which looks chunky given their market ‘form’ which includes picking up just 10 points across their two games in the current international window.
Brazil are also one of the cleanest teams in South America so you’d think the chance of this turning ugly are fairly low.
You can, of course, find arguments against the bet.
Uruguay had Edinson Cavani sent off as they collected 65 booking points in a feisty reverse fixture, although I’d expect a calmer game here with Uruguay surely viewing a draw a good result. They could easily sit off, particularly given they’ve struggled to score many goals in this qualifying campaign (just 13 in 11 games so far).
The referee, Fernando Rapallini, could also put people off. The Argentine is a heavy carder in club football, although he’s not been so card happy in the international arena and significantly showed Uruguay only one yellow card when he took charge of them against Colombia earlier this season – his only previous Uruguay match.
In short, the negatives are not enough to put me off backing a 7/2 shot which has landed 71% of the time across a lengthy period.