Wales’ Kieffer Moore is the player our football props column is focusing on in Monday’s World Cup qualifiers.
“With Estonia having given up just under 17 shots per game so far in the group – a record which puts them among the 10 worst teams in European qualifying in terms of shots conceded – Moore should get chances here.”
Estonia v Wales
Monday 11 October, 19:45
Live on Sky Sports Football, Sky Sports Main Event and S4C
It may pay to keep things simple in Wales’ World Cup qualifier on Monday night.
Robert Page’s side head to Estonia, knowing a win is vital in their bid to finish second in the group and therefore reach the play-offs.
Friday’s 2-2 draw in the Czech Republic – their rivals for that runners-up spot – will have boosted confidence, particularly given there were question marks surrounding a squad without talisman Gareth Bale.
Bale had no fewer than nine shots in the reverse fixture, a game which somehow ended goalless despite Welsh dominance.
They’ll have to look to other sources for shot and goal output on this occasion and Kieffer Moore looks well placed to provide some.
The centre forward will offer plenty of aerial threat and Wales often look to their target man with balls into the box.
With Estonia having given up just under 17 shots per game so far in the group – a record which puts them among the 10 worst teams in European qualifying in terms of shots conceded – Moore should get chances here, especially when you consider the hosts will be without injured, 87-cap defender Sander Puri, plus two other players due to suspension.
Given all this, Moore very much looks worth backing at 7/4 for a headed shot on target.
Moore had three headers against the Czechs, one of which was on target. Those three accounted for all Wales’ aerial chances in that game.
The Cardiff striker missed the home game against the Estonians when it was left to Bale to win balls in the air – he had three of Wales’ four headed shots that day – but it’s easy to see Moore being the man they’ll look to hit with and from set-plays.
Moore managed two headed shots on target against Switzerland at Euro 2020 in the summer and 17/2 about him repeating that looks tempting for those seeking a bigger price.
However, the simple 7/4 option is one I’m happy to take in a bid to get the week off to a winning start.