Granada v Real Sociedad
Thursday 23 September, 18:30 kick-off
“If it ain’t broke don’t fix it, never change a winning team” – all these good sayings were ignored as we moved away from Spain to Serie A yesterday, and the plan backfired with the Italians just too decent to go around getting themselves booked.
The clues were there as our preview cleverly noted that AC Milan had won five of their last six against newly-promoted sides when scoring at least twice and keeping a clean sheet. They duly beat Venezia 2-0.
Anyway, enough of the ifs, buts and maybes, we go again, and it’s back to Spain we go for Thursday’s best bet and, while I’d keep an eye out on Cadiz hoping to stun a badly struggling Barcelona, we’re heading off to Granada as they host Real Sociedad.
Granada, of course, came within about a minute of beating Barcelona on Monday night, and you wonder what that’s taken out of them as they return to action so quickly after that monumental performance.
Real Sociedad have plenty of injury problems but have not been beaten, or indeed conceded a goal since their opening 4-2 defeat at the Nou Camp. They’ll have fresher legs and should be finishing this game the stronger of the two.
And it’s that fatigue factor that can shape the way this game goes, with Sociedad mainly playing it safe due to their injury problems as they’ve turned into a unit that focuses on a clean sheet first and everything else after.
Given where the sides sit in the table, the fact Granada have yet to win this season, have troubles scoring goals and are just 72 hours removed from putting in a huge effort at Barcelona, around Evens or the shades of odds-against for a Real Sociedad victory is great value.
Granada have only scored three goals in five games so far, and with their tired legs coming up against a well-drilled fresher outfit then goals will be hard to come by for the hosts.
It should also mean bookings, with Granada now up to 16 yellows for the season after picking up six at the Nou Camp and four each against Rayo Vallecano and Valencia – the two best sides they’ve faced this season.
Three Granada bookings here should be a doddle.
Corners should also come into play here, with both sides pretty similar in corners won but with Granada conceding more corners than anyone in the league bar Villarreal and having lost the corner count four times out of five.
Thanks to our old friend Bet Builder we can take a pop at these two well backed-up statistical trends to plug into a well-priced treble.