Bundesliga: Bayern and Wolfsburg to stay in front in Gameweek 6

Bundesliga: Bayern and Wolfsburg to stay in front in Gameweek 6

Bayern to win top v bottom battle

Greuther Fürth v Bayern Munich
Friday, 19:30
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After putting seven past Bochum from an already-terrifying 4.99 xGF, Bayern now travel to Fürth to take on the second of the two promoted sides. The hosts can consider themselves unfortunate to have lost in Berlin last weekend, and Infogol can see them breaching a defensive line with an 0.98 xGA average this season, but a win against the champions is likely to be far beyond them.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-3 @ 12.0011/1

Leverkusen to stay above Mainz with home win

Bayer Leverkusen v Mainz
Saturday, 14:30
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With Leverkusen and Mainz locked together on 10 points, the winner at the BayArena is guaranteed to end the weekend in the Champions League spots. The visitors have the better underlying numbers, but needed two late goals to rescue a point in last season’s corresponding fixture, and Infogol’s model points to a home win for Gerardo Seoane as he prepares his team for a midweek Europa League trip to Glasgow.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 8.6015/2

Eintracht Frankfurt to threaten top-half return

Eintracht Frankfurt v Köln
Saturday, 14:30
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Eintracht remain winless but will hope a backs-to-the-wall point in Wolfsburg last week gives them the energy to kick on at home to Köln. The visitors were beaten soundly on their last trip to Deutsche Bank Park, with the actual goals and the xG both firmly in the home side’s favour, and there’s little from Infogol’s model to suggest any different despite Steffen Baumgart’s side coming off successive draws in the league.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.008/1

Wolfsburg to pass tough Hoffenheim test to stay unbeaten

Hoffenheim v Wolfsburg
Saturday, 14:30
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While Wolfsburg lost their 100% record last weekend, the chance-creation against Eintracht Frankfurt ensured a higher xGF than in several of their league victories. A trip to Hoffenheim is rarely straightforward, but the hosts haven’t been in the best of form of late, and their 1.58 xGA average suggests the away side will have opportunities to pick up the three points they need to stay in touch with Bayern Munich.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 9.6017/2

Leipzig to claim long-awaited win

RB Leipzig v Hertha Berlin
Saturday, 14:30
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Last weekend’s vital win helped Hertha climb clear of trouble, but one of the Bundesliga’s worst defences this season is likely to be up against it during Saturday’s trip to Leipzig. The home side are actually below their opponents in the table after a tough start, but their underlying numbers are healthier than their bottom-half berth suggests and three points should be enough to help manager Jesse Marsch breathe more easily.

BTTS? No
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 3-0 @ 9.6017/2

yussuf-poulsen-rb-leipzig.jpg

Union to remain tough to beat at home

Union Berlin v Arminia Bielefeld
Saturday, 14:30
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After continuing their long unbeaten home record into the current campaign, Union will feel confident against an Arminia side which averaged 1.77 xGA on the road last term. Last season’s corresponding fixture ended 5-0 to the hosts, and while a similar hammering might be unlikely, Infogol doesn’t expect Frank Kramer’s visitors to end this game with a first league win of the season.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 8.808/1

Rose to take down former employers with Dortmund

Borussia Mönchengladbach v Borussia Dortmund
Saturday, 17:30
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Gladbach have found things tough since manager Marco Rose moved to Dortmund, and defeat against their former boss could see them end the weekend in the relegation spots if other results go against them. Unfortunately for Rose’s successor Adi Hütter, Dortmund have the league’s second-best xGF average, scoring more than three times as many actual goals as their opponents in their five games, and Infogol’s model expects an away win to keep these teams at opposite ends.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 9.4017/2

Stuttgart to move past tough spell

Bochum v Stuttgart
Sunday, 14:30
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After three defeats from four, Stuttgart have a chance to climb back closer to where they’ll feel their underlying numbers should have them. Opponents Bochum have the worst xGA record in the entire division, with their heavy defeat at Bayern playing a part, and the visiting side are expected to hand last season’s 2. Bundesliga champions another defeat – albeit with not as eye-catching a scoreline.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 1-2 @ 9.6017/2

Freiburg to see off Augsburg and stay unbeaten

Freiburg v Augsburg
Sunday, 16:30
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Augsburg were able to pull away from danger last weekend with a win over Borussia Mönchengladbach, though their 0.92 xGF per game average remains one of the lowest in the league. They travel to face a Freiburg side coming off an unbeaten start to the season, and the numbers suggest we could be in for another home win after two second-half goals have Christian Streich’s men victory back in March.

BTTS? Yes
Over/Under 2.5? Over
Correct Score Prediction – Back the 2-1 @ 9.208/1