Week 2 DFS Optimized Lineup and Bargain Report

Week 2 DFS Optimized Lineup and Bargain Report

Optimized Lineup

QB – Emory Jones, Florida | $9,000 | 28.8 Points = 3.20 Points Per Thousand

RB – Breece Hall, Iowa State | $8,000 | 29.7 Points = 3.71 PPT

RB – Kevin Harris, South Carolina | $7,500 | 29.6 Points = 3.95 PPT

WR – Yo’Heinz Tyler, Ball State | $4,200 | 21.9 Points = 5,21 PPT

WR – Garrett Wilson, Ohio State | $5,900 | 20.9 Points = 3.54 PPT

WR – Kemore Gamble, Florida | $3,000 | 13 Points = 4.33 PPT

Flex – Isaiah Spiller, Texas A&M | $6,700 | 27.8 Points = 4.15 PPT

S-Flex – Carter Bradley, Toledo | $5,700 | 22.0 Points = 3.86 PPT

$50,000/$50,000

The Optimizer loves Emory Jones, who gets a South Florida team that got blanked 45-0 by NC State last week. However fellow QB Anthony Richardson made headlines last week with some game breaking scrambles, rushing seven times for 160 yards and a touchdown in relief work as Florida beat FAU 35-14 in their opener. Jones should still be able to produce against another inferior G5 opponent, but i’m concerned about his long term viability with AR15 looming…Kemore Gamble is a touchdown dependent 3K punt play, but his floor is at least pretty stable…Yo’Heinz against Penn State is a gamble, as is Carter Bradley against ND’s pass defense that got exploited by FSU…I like Bradley to put up 20 points when all is said and done against ND…Garrett Wilson is chalk at $5,900 and will be heavily owned.

Froton Adjusted Optimized Lineup

QB – CJ Stroud, Ohio State | $8,600 | 21.5 Points = 2.50 PPT

RB – Isaiah Spiller, Texas A&M | $6,700 | 27.8 Points = 4.15 PPT

RB – Noah Cain, Penn State | $6,400 | 18.7 Poins = 2.92 PPT

WR – Garrett Wilson, Ohio State | $5,900 | 20.9 Points = 3.54 PPT

WR – Bo Melton, Rutgers | $5,700 | 15.8 Points = 2.77 PPT

WR – Parker Washington, Penn State | $4,000 | 6.8 Points = 1.70 PPT

Flex – Sean Tucker, Syracuse | $6,800 | 16.1 Points = 2.37 PPT

S-Flex – Carter Bradley, Toledo | $5,700 | 22 Points = 3.86 PPT

$48,800/$50,000

I don’t love the QB options in the main slate, so I went hunting for upside after Stroud’s strong second-half showing against Minny…Melton is a legitimate pro prospect and continues to make plays, he’s a great shot at $5,700 against Syracuse…Sean Tucker is an absolute workhorse for the Orange, rushing 25 times for 181 yards and a touchdown Week 1 against Ohio…Noah Cain appears to be the cler number one RB in Happy Valley and should approach 20 points this week against a soft Ball State defense, with Parker Washington also likely to catch a TD with BSU allowing 367 passing yards to Western Illinois last Saturday…I think Texas A&M is going to bulldoze Colorado on the ground with Isaiah Spiller likely to see 20+ totes and 100 yards.

Bargain Bin

Luke Doty, QB, South Carolina @ECU | $6,500

With Doty on the mend with a foot injury, South Carolina rolled with Grad Assistant turned QB Zeb Noland against Eastern Illinois last week. Noland wasn’t asked to do much, averaging 7.8 ADOT while completing 13-of-21 passes for 121 yards and four touchdowns passes against the inept EIU defense in a 46-0 evisceration. The Gamecocks ran 47 times for 258 yards and 5.5 YPC behind an offensive line that returns 4 starters and eight players with starting experience while boasting the 15th most talented two-deep in the nation according to the 247Sports and Rivals recruiting rankings.

Doty was a top-10 rated dual-threat quarterback from the 2020 class and even played wide receiver last season in an effort to get his freak athleticism on the field despite not taking snaps under center. The Gamecocks face an ECU team that has allowed over 200 yards rushing and 5.0 yards per carry over the last two seasons. The Pirates were gashed by a well coached Appalachian State team to the tune of 36 carries, 226 yards, 6.3 YPC and two touchdowns last week in a 33-19 loss that wasn’t as close as the scoreboard indicates.

With an experienced and talented offensive line that is playing against an overmatched G5 defensive front in ECU, South Carolina is going to bludgeon ECU all game long in the trenches, which bodes well for Doy’s dual-threat skillset if he is able to return from injury this Saturday. The optimizer has Doty at 17.1 points and I think he could top the 20 point threshold if he plays.

Zach Evans, RB, TCU vs. Cal | $4,600

A five-star RB who is the highest rated recruit TCU has ever inked, Evans earned just 25 carries through the first six games of his freshman season before exploding for 29 carries, 264 yards, 8.8 yards per carry and three touchdowns over his final 3 contests. All signs pointed to Evans being the clear leader of the Horned Frogs backfield, as 2020 rushing leader Darwin Barlow transferred to USC.

However just when it seemed Evans was poised to record a breakout season, he landed in HC Gary Patterson’s doghouse by breaking team policy and played only sparingly in the team’s opener. Despite receiving just five carries Evans rushed for 27 yards, 5.4 YPC and a touchdown in a 55-3 blowout of Duquesne.

With his misstep now atoned for against an FCS patsy, it’s now time to break out Evans against a Power Five opponent in Cal. The Horned Frogs will not have the luxury of keeping their star recruit on ice, as I see Evans seeing 15-20 carries against the Golden Bears, which should result in 15+ points. His $4,600 price tag is the best value on the Main slate.

TreVeyon Henderson, RB, Ohio State vs. Oregon | $4,300

Another uber-talented blue-chip tailback, Henderson is the unquestioned future of the Ohio State backfield. The only cause for consternation regarding his DFS usage is how soon will he be deployed for 10+ touches per game? If we’re going by last week’s prime time showing against Minnesota, he doesn’t need many opportunities to produce startable numbers. Having touched the ball for only two carries and one reception, Henderson posted 95 total yards and an eye-popping dump-off that he took for a 70-yard house call.

Now with Oregon on tap, HC Ryan Day is saying he’s going to shorten the running back rotation that saw four players see touches last Saturday. In their season opener against Minnesota, the Buckeyes ran only 48 plays, which is their lowest tally since 2015. For a team that has been accustomed to running an average of 75 plays per game over the past two campaigns, we should expect to see a great deal more carries to be distributed against the Ducks.

With a shorter running back room, 25-30 extra plays from the previous contest and an explosive first showing, it’s reasonable to expect Henderson receives a substantially increased workload and provides a sizable return on his $4,300 investment. The question isn’t if he is going too be a Buckeye great, it’s when. Maybe his ascension happens this week?

Parker Washington, WR, Penn State vs. Ball State | $4,000

Penn State’s Week 1 matchup against Wisconsin wasn’t a profitable one from a DFS perspective, as the Badgers ran the ball 58 times while controlling the clock for an absurd 42:51 of game action. The Nittany Lions were suffocated, recording just 51 offensive snaps while being on offense for barely over 17 minutes and converting 3-of-13 third down opportunities.

Still, PSU threw for 247 yards under new OC Mike Yurcich and pulled out the 16-10 victory. With the stingy defense of Wisconsin now in the rear view, Penn State now turns the page to a Ball State program that allowed 294 passing yards per game on average over their eight game MAC/San Jose State schedule last season. In addition to their woeful 2020 pass defense performance, the Cardinals just got lit up by Western Illinois QB Connor Sampson for 30 completions on 43 passes for 367 yards, two touchdowns and one interception in a competitive 31-21 BSU victory Week 1.

Look for Penn State to air-it-out a little more to satiate OC Yurcich’s latent passing desires that he brandished when running the offenses at Oklahoma State and Texas. Washington is in position to post 100 yards and a long touchdown for a very reasonable $4,000.

JD Spielman, WR, TCU vs. Cal | $3,000

After racking up three consecutive seasons with at least 818 receiving yards in each for Nebraska, Spielman transferred as a graduate to TCU last season and barely made a dent in the TCU receiving corps, catching five passes on seven targets for 56 yards in three games before missing the remainder of the season with an undisclosed injury.

Now fully recovered from the ailment. Spielman should be ready to contribute to the TCU passing attack once again. Despite playing only 10 offensive snaps, he caught two passes for 26 yards and a touchdown in addition to handling one carry for two yards. With TCU taking on Cal and Spielman now in good health, even 20-25 snaps could provide a decent return if Spielman can break a long TD. His rich history of receiving success suggests his minimum price tag puts him in a nice punt play spot if you want to load up the rest of your lineup.