Tuesday’s football props column picks out a penalty bet which looks overpriced in the Copa Sudamericana.
“The Uruguayan has awarded a spot-kick in 11 of his 23 matches in 2021. And if that data sample isn’t big enough for you, look back to 2020 and you’ll see a similar strike-rate – seven in 14.”
Red Bull Bragantino v Rosario Central
Tuesday 17 August, 23:15
Live on Betfair Live Video
Some referees love a penalty and in Christian Ferreyra we’ve got one for this match.
The Uruguayan has awarded a spot-kick in 11 of his 23 matches in 2021. And if that data sample isn’t big enough for you, look back to 2020 and you’ll see a similar strike-rate – seven in 14.
In terms of his CONMEBOL appointments – those in the Copa Libertadores and Copa Sudamericana – it’s six in 11 in his career.
This game, a quarter-final of the latter competition, is the second leg of a tie which Brazilians Bragantino currently lead 4-3.
Last week’s game was full of attacking football and with Argentina’s Rosario needing to recover a deficit, something similar can be expected here with plenty of movement into the two penalty areas.
The first leg featured a penalty, not to mention six yellow cards and 31 fouls, as the famous Argentina-Brazil rivalry threatened to boil over again, so there’s much to like about the chances of a spot-kick in this match.
Certainly odds of 17/10 about one being awarded look too big and should be snapped up.