Average Running Position: Nashville through NH

The last time we took a look at Average Running Position and how it correlated to strength, the period under discussion was from Kansas Speedway through Sonoma Raceway. Hendrick Motorsports (HMS) was in the midst of their domination and Kyle Larson occupied five of the top 25 spots during that 45-day period.

The remaining three Hendrick drivers occupied another six positions to give Hendrick 11 of the 25 slots.

HMS remained strong for another couple of weeks with Larson scoring a third consecutive victory and coming up one corner shy of making that four in a row in the Pocono Organics CBD 325. In his stead, Alex Bowman kept the Hendrick streak alive giving the organization a sixth straight win that was broken up by Kyle Busch one day later in the second race of the Pocono doubleheader.

Chase Elliott won at Road America to give Hendrick seven wins in eight weeks – but the organization’s dominance was just starting to wane. Often, looking at strength-based statistics such as Average Running Position, Driver Rating, or Laps in the Top 15 is a much greater indication of tides that are turning.

A quick look at the numbers show Larson has continued to be strong with four appearances on the chart below. The other HMS mates have four more spots locked up. They have not completely fallen off the grid, but the remainder of the field is beginning to close the gap.

Once again, Larson has the best Average Running Position over the past 45 days. His 1.38 in the Ally 400 came ahead of his Nashville victory and it made him a heavy favorite the next week at Pocono Raceway. Larson lived up to the hype with a dominant run that gave him the top running position in the first race of the doubleheader, but a cut tire within sight of the checkered flag denied him the victory.

Bad luck is often unavoidable, and that is why we toss strength-based intangibles into our handicapping formula.

Larson has lost the tiniest of margins over the past few weeks, but the only time he has not been among the top five in Average Running Position was in the second race at Pocono when he was forced to start last in a backup car from the damage done on Saturday.

Ky. Busch holds the second best Average Running Position during the past 45 days. His 1.93 at Atlanta Motor Speedway preceded a second-place finish. He was closely followed in this statistic by his brother – and the winner of that race – Kurt Busch with a 2.17.

Kyle’s demeanor at the end of that race suggested he had been robbed of the victory and he placed the blame on Kurt’s teammate Ross Chastain for holding him up while the leaders tried to lap him. Chastain’s 20th-best running position of 19.6 indicates that he certainly struggled, but the average position on the track relative to the two Busch brothers underscores just how evenly matched they were that afternoon.

Positions four through six all come from last week’s Foxwood Resort Casino 301 at New Hampshire Motor Speedway – and it illustrates another point.

Each time the series visits a short, flat track, we profile that that these are rhythm courses on which it pays to hit precise marks lap after lap. Brad Keselowski’ third-place finish in that event was preceded by a 3.27, Ryan Blaney’s fifth by a 3.76, and Kevin Harvick’s sixth by a 4.38. That makes our point as well as possible.

In addition to his strong Atlanta run, Ky. Busch shows up twice more on the chart below. His 5.65 in the first race of the Pocono doubleheader gave us a clue as to how strong he would be the following day. With the top 20 inverted for that race, Keselowski (with a 7.98) was the only driver to make the chart for the Pocono Mountains 350 on Sunday, but Ky. Busch rewarded our confidence with his Sunday win.

Busch also makes the list with a 7.94 at Road America. He is the only other driver other than Larson with more than two appearances on the chart below.

Strength-based stats also allow us to reward drivers for strong runs despite any problems they may experience at the end of a race. Larson’s cut tire at Pocono is one example, but an even better one belongs to Elliott. He was one of Larson’s top rivals at Nashville for the majority of that race before a mistake on the final pits left him with a wobbly wheel. He crossed under the checkers 13th and was disqualified by NASCAR for not having enough lug nuts secured.

In order to handicap Elliott effectively next year when the series returns to Nashville, his fourth-best Average Running Position of 7.65 and a seventh-best Driver Rating of 98.1 are much more important than the 39th-place finishing position that NASCAR handed him.

One driver conspicuously absent from the chart below is Martin Truex Jr. He made two appearances the last time we visited this stat, including with the second-best 1.47 at Darlington Raceway. In the past 45 days, he’s earned a Average Running Position of better-than 10th only once, in the Sunday Pocono race, but his 8.75 does not quite make the top 25.

Average Running Position, Last 45 Days
Top-25

Rise of Parity; Fall of Hamlin and Harvick
Road Courses and the Elliott Factor
Laps in the Top-15 thru New Hampshire