Last week we saw reigning champions Palmeiras deliver for us, with a smash and grab 1-0 victory against Catolica and they are now massively odds on to make it to the quarter finals, with the second leg back on home soil.
As predicted, Argentinos Juniors were able to frustrate River Plate and came away with a 1-1 draw, helping to continue to build my P&L.
Despite eight matches this week, there’s just the one tip from me this week, but its one which represents plenty of value.
Defensa to attack…and score
Flamengo v Defensa y Justicia
Live on Betfair
Last year’s Copa Sudamericana winners head to Brazil hoping to overturn a 1-0 defeat against the current market favourites Flamengo.
The Argentinian side will be kicking themselves that they weren’t able to take any kind of result from the first leg, after a cruel deflected goal from Michael in the first half was enough to secure all three points – deserved or not is very much the question.
Defensa played with confidence, as they have done all tournament, and they were wrongly not awarded a penalty when the score was still 0-0 when Flamengo’s Diego Alves clattered through Rotondi after a sloppy ball out from the back.
It wasn’t to be for the hosts, who dominated the match throughout, finishing the match with 56% possession, 14 shots, six corners and 529 passes – 117 more than Flamengo could muster.
I had tipped up Defensa y Justicia as an outside bet in my ante post column at a massive 51.050/1, hoping they could take an advantage to Brazil. Those odds may have drifted further, but the tie is far from over, and judging on Flamengo’s nine conceded goals in the group stage, there’s value to be had in this fixture yet.
Defensa y Justicia scored in every away match in their group which was one of the toughest this year, including a 4-3 victory against current holders Palmeiras – in their own back yard, I must add.
They are fearless and against a Flamengo side with no crowd, expect them to come out and attack.
In the group stage, Flamengo conceded at home in their 4-1 victory against Union La Calera, the whipping boys of the group, before sharing a surprise 2-2 draw with LDU Quito at home.
Although the Brazilians had been reduced to ten men, Quito’s goals were both scored by simply putting a ball into the box, when the home side had plenty of men behind the ball to deal with them – but they didn’t.
Flamengo did play out a 0-0 draw with Velez Sarsfield in their last group match at home, but with both sides having already qualified, it was played at a rather gentle pace throughout.
Flamengo beat Velez in their first Copa Libertadores match this campaign 3-2, once again showing their frailties at the back.
And this is why I’m putting up a huge three-point tip for Defensa y Justicia to score against Flamengo on Thursday at 1.9520/21. If they do bow out of the tournament, they certainly won’t crumble.
We haven’t seen that all tournament, nor did we in the first leg, and I’m expecting Defensa to rise to the occasion and 1.9520/21 for them to score seems rather overpriced to me.