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Friday means championship weekend is just around the corner across our three ATP tournaments, and we’re getting some great matchups as the field gets smaller. With that, I’ve picked out two bets I really like and I’ll get to them now.
Jenson Brooksby (-152) vs. Peter Gojowczyk (+119)
The cindarella run continues for young American Jenson Brooksby in his first-ever grass court tournament. The 20-year-old has now racked up three main-draw wins in his young career, impressively taking Denis Kudla in a hotly-contested three-setter to get to the quarterfinals in Newport. Now, he’s got to get through a 32-year-old who once ranked inside the top 40 in the world.
Gojowczyk hasn’t had a great year, going just 19-16, but he’s found something on the grass with a 5-2 run on the surface this summer. I’d caution that most of wins came against out-of-form players, and some which have struggled to play well on grass for years. Mitchell Krueger has been pretty terrible in 2021 with a 13-13 record, and Vasek Pospisil has really had a tough two months and never has had any success on clay.
The German needs a slow surface to really dominate, producing his best stuff on the right kind of hardcourts which bounce a bit easier. Brooksby, meanwhile, is right at home on a fast surface like this. His huge, flat groundstrokes have been lethal on the grass, and the same can be said for the incredible way he competes. In a relatively relaxed tournament with little at stake, Brooksby has simply looked to be a level above everyone else.
I think this line is accurate given Brooksby’s affection for grass, and I’m a big believer in the wins he’s had so far here. His level all year long has been exceptional and he’s picked right up on a new surface and continued to win.
Edge: Brooksby -152
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Yannick Hanfman (-125) vs. Arthur Rinderknech (-105)
This match is a bit hard to call, given Hanfman’s great record on clay throughout his career, but you have to admit this is simply not the German’s top form. Hanfman has been in a slump all season long, and had the benefit of coming through the first two rounds in Bastad against some struggling players in Jiri Vesely and Thiago Monteiro. it’s very hard to put any stock into those wins, and the fact that he was broken deep in the second just as he was about to take out Monteiro showed me his confidence still isn’t all the way back yet.
Rinderknech, meanwhile, is brimming with confidence. His huge, booming serve has been blowing players off the court all year long and that’s remained true of late. That’s going to leave the margin for error pretty slim here for Hanfman, and I don’t think his game is clean enough at the moment quite yet to back him.
Rinderknech did take down Hanfman in Halle, and while that was on a faster surface he was able to pick up the serve of the German with relative ease. With the way the Frenchman is serving, a couple breaks could do it. Simply put, I see the wrong player as being favored here.
Edge: Rinderknech (-105)
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