Foxwoods Resort Casino 301
3 p.m., NBCSN
A driver not named Kyle Larson is the favorite for Sunday’s race.
Don’t worry, Larson is the No. 2 favorite. But he’s got slightly worse odds to win (+525) than favorite Martin Truex Jr. at +500. Truex is the favorite for Sunday’s race after he won at Phoenix and Martinsville earlier this season.
Both of those tracks are flat and relatively short like New Hampshire. The New England track is somewhat of a supersized Martinsville, and it’s not a coincidence that the favorites for the race are drivers who have excelled at both Phoenix and Martinsville in recent years.
It’s also not much of a stretch to wonder if Sunday’s race is going to be a preview of what the race for the title could look like at Phoenix in November. The four title finalists from 2020’s season finale at Phoenix — Denny Hamlin, Brad Keselowski, Chase Elliott and Joey Logano — are all among the top seven favorites at New Hampshire. A lot can change from July to November, but the fastest drivers on Sunday may very well be the drivers who are racing for the title at Phoenix later this season.
Here’s a look at what you need to know to bet the race. All odds are via BetMGM.
Martin Truex Jr., +500
Kyle Larson, +525
Denny Hamlin, +550
Kyle Busch, +650
Brad Keselowski, +700
Truex has never won at New Hampshire but he’s been really, really good since 2016. He’s finished in the top seven in each of the last six races at the track and has led at least 83 laps in four of those races. A win seems only like a matter of time.
Larson has four top-five finishes in 10 Loudon starts though he last finished inside the top five in 2017. Keselowski is the defending champion of the race and both Hamlin and Busch have also nabbed wins at New Hampshire.
Good mid-tier value
Kevin Harvick, +1200
Ryan Blaney, +1800
Harvick has four wins at New Hampshire and three of them have come in the last six races. He won in both 2018 and 2019 and should be near the front again on Sunday. Blaney finished seventh when Harvick won in 2018 and fourth when Harvick won in 2019.
Don’t bet this driver
Aric Almirola, +8000
While Almirola and Stewart-Haas Racing have shown more speed lately, stay away. There are better long shot values.
Looking for a long shot?
Tyler Reddick, +6600
Reddick has made one Cup start at New Hampshire and finished 10th. He also finished ninth in his last Xfinity Series start at the track in 2019.
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