Bolivia v Uruguay: First win for La Celeste won’t be easy

Bolivia 18.017/1 v Uruguay 1.222/9; The Draw 6.25/1
Thursday 24 June, 22:00
Live on BBCi

Bolivia look destined to finish rock bottom

Time is running out for Bolivia to salvage something from the 2021 Copa America.

After two games they are bottom of Group A, having lost both encounters. Another defeat would almost certainly see Bolivia eliminated from the tournament, with a match against Argentina to come in the final game.

After a 3-1 defeat to Paraguay in their opening match, Bolivia were at least able to restrict Chile to a 1-0 win. Keeping their hopes barley alive with a draw, might be the best that Bolivia can hope for. They have only won three of their last 32 games and those wins came against Myanmar, Haiti and Venezuela (D9 L20).

Uruguay need to rebuild confidence

Uruguay will be very disappointed with their start to the tournament, with the team only fourth in Group B after two games.

After a 1-0 defeat to Argentina in their opening match, Uruguay drew 1-1 with Chile in the second game. The good news is that those should be Uruguay’s most difficult games, with this fixture against Bolivia to be followed by a final match against Paraguay.

If ever there was an opponent to help a side to rebuild their confidence, Bolivia are it. It’s fair to say that Uruguay are badly in need of such a boost. They have only found the net once in this tournament and that was an own goal from Arturo Vidal, in their game against Chile. That goal was the first that Uruguay scored in a five match run without a win (D3 L2).

Odds need to match risk of backing Uruguay

Uruguay are the 1.222/9 favourites to win, with the draw at 6.25/1 and Bolivia at 18.017/1.

As poor a team as Bolivia are, there’s no value in Uruguay at that price, given their current form. Yet while Uruguay may not have been scoring many of late, they have remained defensively solid, with their five match winless streak, seeing them keep two clean sheets. You can back Uruguay to win to nil at 1.834/5.

Even those odds feel a little slim, given the element of risk in backing Uruguay right now. The solution could be to back Uruguay to win and for there to be under 2.5 goals at 3.211/5. Each of Uruguay’s last five games have seen fewer than three goals scored.