Pep Guardiola has never endured such a poor season as a manager. The last time he failed to win the league (if we exclude his debut season at Manchester City, when they were not expected to challenge) he walked out on Barcelona so exhausted he had to take a sabbatical to recover. And that year wasn’t anything like as bad as 2019/20, a season in which City finished 18 points off the top and were embarrassed by Lyon in the Champions League.
We simply do not know how Guardiola deals with adversity, so rarely does he fail. And as if the pressure wasn’t already high enough, with just 12 months left on his contract this might be his final chance to fulfil the task he was hired for: win the Champions League. There is no doubt 2020/21 is the most important season of his managerial career.
State of play
Fortunately for City fans, the odds are stacked in his favour.
The points difference from Man City to Liverpool does not accurately reflect the distance between the two sides. Jurgen Klopp’s men outperformed their xG to a total of 25 points, per understat.com, reflecting their knack for winning tight games by a single goal as City floundered. The key factor for both teams was motivation: Liverpool’s passion spurred them on, while Man City’s heads dropped after a couple of early defeats.
Both back on zero, that psychological difference will evaporate. Man City’s remains the most talented squad in the country and Guardiola remains one of the best managers the world has ever seen. With lessons learnt from a damaging 2019/20 they will surely roar back.
Strengths & Weaknesses
The most obvious flaw, and perhaps the only one that is really significant, is Man City’s openness in the transition from attack to defence. Without a prime Fernandinho in midfield Guardiola’s side lack bite in the challenge, while the loss of Vincent Kompany left their high defensive line vulnerable. City lacked leadership, as well as quality, in central defensive areas.
Defeats to Norwich, Wolves (twice), Manchester United (twice), and Tottenham Hotspur were all lost that way, and had City simply bought a centre-back last summer they may not have suffered those all-important defeats in the first third of the campaign. Patch up the middle, and City will be completely transformed, especially now that Rodri is beginning to find his feet.
But as emphasised by the 3-1 defeat to Lyon, Guardiola is becoming increasingly conservative in his tactical choices. He is an anxious manager and, not used to losing, he appears to be making cautious decisions when faced with this new challenge to his supremacy. The midfield axis of Rodri and Ilkay Gundogan is ponderous, yet he frequently falls back on its safety, for example.
The first few weeks of the new season will tell us a lot about the man: will he come out fighting and make City the best attacking team in the world again, or will he shrink, leaving us to conclude that – like Mourinho at Real Madrid – Klopp has got into his head?
The former is more likely. Kevin de Bruyne’s genius has only risen as David Silva’s influence waned, and this season the supporting cast of Phil Foden, Raheem Sterling, Riyad Mahrez, and Ferran Torres (replacing Leroy Sane, who was badly missed in 2019/20) will probably catapult Man City back towards 100 points. Guardiola’s tactical preference for highly elaborate passing sequences won’t change, of course, and so with a couple of new players to fill those defensive flaws they should get back to their controlling dominance of Premier League matches.
Transfer business
Torres is a superb addition, but while Nathan Ake is a good signing at £40 million Man City need another top-quality centre-back to partner Aymeric Laporte. Kalidou Koulibaly is most definitely on the radar, although City are likely to go for a cheaper – and younger – alternative.
Spooked by their poor 2019/20, Man City’s owners are reportedly willing to spend up to £300 million this window, per the Athletic, with a big chunk of that going on a new centre forward and a playmaker to replace Silva. The most high-profile options are Lautaro Martinez and Jack Grealish, although at the time of writing very little is known about the club’s transfer targets.
What supporters expect
Anything less than the league title would be considered failure, and if City don’t win the Champions League before Guardiola departs, well, that would be a failure too – piling an awful lot of pressure on the 2020/21 season. Should they spend £300 million on new players, expectations would only grow. Supporters can expect a title challenge that at the very least goes down to the final day.
Look out for…
A season-defining start: With their opener against Aston Villa postponed, Man City’s new defence will be tested early on by Wolves (a), Leicester City (h), Leeds United (a), and Arsenal (h) in their first four matches. That’s the sort of nightmare opening that will either leave City emboldened and clear title favourites, or, even if they dropped just a few points, looking pretty close to ‘crisis’ territory. The season hinges on a fast start.
Foden’s year: Guardiola once told reporters that he will have failed as Man City manager if Phil Foden does not become a star player under his watch. Now that Silva has moved on, this is surely the time for the 19-year-old to become a regular fixture in the starting 11, dovetailing with De Bruyne in central attacking midfield.
