As is always the case with new champions, the big question for Liverpool is whether they can approach the 2020/21 season with the same hunger – the same passion – after the joy and relief of completing their 30-year pursuit of the Premier League crown. This isn’t a question of motivation (who wouldn’t want to retain the title?), rather of the subconscious extra 1% that makes all the difference at elite level.
But their trophy lift in July wasn’t wholly satisfying, won’t have entirely sated them. The Liverpool players celebrating at Anfield will have keenly felt the absence of the fans; the silence that hovered underneath Coldplay; the loss of You’ll Never Walk Alone ringing in their ears. That, alone, should be enough motivation to repeat the trick.
And yet there are tentative signs that Liverpool are slowing down – just as Manchester City are speeding back up again.
State of play
Liverpool have won 195 points over the last two years, and with no Africa Cup of Nations this season it is fair to assume they can go above 90 once again. Jurgen Klopp has assembled a near-perfect first 11, a phenomenal mixture of tactical organisation and psychological strength on a scale that has never been seen before in English football. Just keep going, and they’ll be right up there.
Nevertheless, there have been some warning signs. Liverpool won just seven of their final 15 games in all competitions in 2019/20. They outperformed their xG by 9.81 goals and conceded 6.57 fewer than expected, giving them an xPoints total of just 74, 25 lower than their real total – a statistic that reflects the fact they won 14 of the 31 league games it took to secure the title by a single goal.
There’s nothing wrong with efficiency, but it does mean it will only take a marginal decrease in Liverpool’s tempo, tactical togetherness, and shooting to drop off alarmingly. Their first three games of the season are Leeds United (h), Chelsea (a), and Arsenal (h). We will learn a lot about Liverpool’s title defence in September.
Strengths & Weaknesses
The strengths aren’t difficult to highlight. Klopp’s 4-3-3 is built around that incredible front three staying central while Liverpool have possession, sucking the opposition into a narrow formation to allow the full-backs to find space. Trent Alexander-Arnold and Andrew Robertson are more like playmakers than defenders, regularly dipping into the half-spaces to create chaos in the final third.
But Liverpool’s greatest strength is their tactical variety. Whether playing on the counter-attack through Roberto Firmino, relying on Virgil van Dijk’s pinpoint long balls into the flanks, building neatly through Georginho Wijnaldum, or relying on Klopp’s counter-press to release the front three, Liverpool almost always find a way.
That might not be the case next season. In recent months Wolves, Arsenal, and Everton have performed well – taking points, or coming close – by deploying a back three against Liverpool, following the template first laid down by Sheffield United’s Chris Wilder.
In a 1-0 defeat at Brammell Lane, in which a Dean Henderson howler made the difference, United’s back three could go man-to-man with Liverpool’s forwards to leave the wing-backs free to step up and meet Alexander-Arnold and Robertson.
Surely more clubs will follow suit in 2020/21. Klopp will need to find yet another new way to confound opponents this season, not least because Watford’s 3-0 victory back in February has provided every Premier League team with hope: play 4-5-1, with the wingers making a flat back six for long periods, and it is possible to counter-attack to victory in the spaces behind the Liverpool full-backs.
Don’t back Liverpool to win the title at 9/5.
Transfer business
One way to create new attacking methods is to add world-class players with different skill sets to the squad, allowing Klopp to shake things up with his team selection and keep opposition managers guessing. That’s why Timo Werner would have been such a good signing – and why Liverpool fans may feel mildly alarmed about the manager’s decision not to pursue a deal.
Instead, Liverpool have reportedly turned their attention to Thiago Alcantra of Bayern Munich. Other than that it would appear Klopp only wants squad players, with Norwich left-back Jamaal Lewis, Brighton centre-back Ben White, and Watford winger Ismaeli Sarr on the club’s radar, according to The Athletic.
Despite Adam Lallana, Dejan Lovren, and Nathaniel Clyne already out the door, the club could also sell Harry Wilson, Marko Grujic, Xherdan Shaqiri and Wijnaldum, who enters the final year of his deal. Even if they sold all four, Liverpool are unlikely to splash the cash on a new star player; Klopp has faith that Takumi Minamino, Naby Keita, and Harvey Elliot will step up.
What supporters expect
Liverpool haven’t retained the league title since the 1983/84 season, and having won 195 of a possible 228 points over the last two seasons supporters will be hopeful they can keep their place at the summit. Domestic honours remain the priority for a club desperate to ensure their title win this year is the beginning of a decade of dominance.
However, crashing out of the Champions League in the second round to Atletico Madrid was bitterly disappointing and supporters will expect a better run this time around, plus Liverpool’s lack of success in the FA Cup is becoming newsworthy. They haven’t lifted the trophy since 2006. Perhaps Liverpool will drop out of the title race long before the end of the season, allowing them focus on cup competitions, making an FA Cup and Champions League double, priced at 33/1, worth a small bet.
Look out for…
Minamino and Keita shining: Keita’s performance in Liverpool’s 5-3 win against Chelsea towards the end of the season was the first real glimpse of his talent. The Guinean has struggled to adapt to Premier League football, but is starting to look the real deal with those weaving runs through central midfield. Minamino hasn’t worked out either, although the 25-year-old has only been at the club since January and deserves time to find his feet.
Title decider at Old Trafford?: Liverpool travel to Manchester United on May 1st for their fifth-to-last game of the Premier League season, and if the stars align that will make it the most important North West Derby in a decade. It will be Liverpool’s last ‘Big Six’ match of the campaign, while Manchester City would still have Chelsea left to play the following week. If both clubs are as relentless as in 2018/19, the game at Old Trafford will prove decisive.
