We showed a 2.25 point profit last week from our four selections, with Same Game Multis winning at 3.2 and 3.23 from the four games, so let’s try to do it all over again.
Entertaining Italians avoid 90-minute defeat
Atalanta v PSG
Wednesday August 12, 20:00
Live on BT Sport 1
I think the Italians are being pretty under-rated here.
For PSG, winning their domestic league with ease in light of no serious challengers for the umpteenth time and playing just the one match since the resumption of football is hardly the ideal preparation for playing a side as dangerous as Atalanta.
They won 11 matches in a row- five before the break, six after- proof of a side who really has something about them, given it’s the Serie A they play in, not (with all due respect), the Maltese Second Division.
As for PSG, of course they have a star-studded line-up and many have pointed to the fact this may be their best chance yet of winning this competition but I can’t get over the fact that they may well be extremely rusty and were pretty ordinary in beating Lyon in the final of the French League Cup on penalties. They may go through eventually, but I’ll happily take Atalanta on the Double Chance market (in 90 minutes).
With 62% (home) and 73% (away) of Atalanta’s Serie A matches seeing both teams score across this season just gone by, including each of their last four away games and with a reputation for being one of the most entertaining teams in Europe, both teams to score is the way to go as the second selection.
Tight and tense, just like Atletico like it
RB Leipzig v Atletico Madrid
Thursday August 13, 20:00
This is a bit of a tough one because we know that two Atletico players have tested positive for Corona and won’t be travelling, let alone playing, but we don’t know which two!
But assuming it’s not two of their three or four most important players, and I think Atletico really should progress here. This is familiar territory for them and completely unchartered territory for Leipzig. Experience goes a long way when you get to the business end of a tournament like this and that applies to the manager as much as the players.
I really would be surprised if by hook or by crook Atletico don’t go through, so the Spanish side to qualify is the first of the two selections.
The second is that the game goes under 2.5 goals. Not only is that very much the way of pragmatic Diego Simeone but the stats back that up. After all, 71% of their games in La Liga went that way and the tighter and tenser the game is, the better for Atletico.
Leipzig really don’t face defences like this back home in the Bundesliga so even if they want it to be an open game, they may not be given the chance.
Bayern win but Barca score
Barcelona v Bayern Munich
Friday August 14, 20:00
Bayern have arguably been the best side in the whole of Europe since football resumed and I don’t think that Barcelona are in anywhere near that sort of standard at the moment. They made a right mess of La Liga, blowing a lead to Real Madrid and though they were considerably better against Napoli, the Italians somewhat made life quite easy for them, conceding early and then giving away a penalty. So, I’ll take the bolder approach and go with Bayern to win in 90 minutes than just to qualify.
But it’s hard to see Barca not scoring. Any one of Lionel Messi, Luis Suarez and Antoine Griezmann are capable of creating a moment of brilliance and it’s in defence that Bayern have a few concerns so both teams to score is certainly the way to go as our second leg.
Plain sailing for City
Manchester City v Lyon
Saturday August 15, 20:00
The odds suggest this is the most unbalanced of the four Champions League ties and I’m inclined to agree with that. I have a huge amount of respect for the way Lyon beat Juventus but they benefited from an extremely fortunate penalty against a Juventus side that’s far from being vintage one.
If I look at Lyon’s side, I’m not sure a single player would make into City’s starting XI and even though football doesn’t always work like that, I think City should be pretty comfortable here.
That’s not to say they’re going to go out and win 3-0 but I’d be surprised if Lyon score and I’d be even more surprised if City aren’t leading at the break, so go with City to be up at half-time and ‘no’ on both teams to score which in effect is the same as thinking City will keep a clean sheet.