Trends suggests goals are on the cards
Arsenal [1.6] v West Ham [6.2]; Draw [4.5]
We’ve been here before. Five games kicking off at the traditional time of 3pm on Saturday afternoon and four of them have very strong odds-on favourites to win, all playing at home.
Arsenal, [1.6], Sheffield United, Southampton and Wolves, all trading at around the [1.7] mark, are the four jollies that will play a big part in accumulators this weekend but I’m not convinced all will win. Or to rephrase that, I’m not confident in backing any of them to win at such short odds.
I haven’t been convinced by the Gunners under Mikel Arteta but it’s hard to knock their record under their new boss. Yes they’ve drawn plenty of games but they’ve lost just one league match under his management and earlier this week they proved me wrong by going to Portsmouth and putting in a thoroughly professional performance to progress through to the quarter-finals of the FA Cup.
The Gunners are just five points off fifth, which of course is a position that could get you into the Champions League if Man City lose their appeal against their two-year UEFA ban. So there’s lots riding on this game against West Ham, not least the need for the Hammers to pick up points.
David Moyes‘ men played really well in a 3-2 defeat at Liverpool recently and they backed that up by beating Southampton 3-1 last Saturday. They’re out of the relegation zone but only on goal difference, and you sense that they’ll approach this game much the same way as they did at Anfield.
We could be set for a cracker then, and the recent head-to-head results between these two teams also suggests that we should be in for an entertaining game. The last seven league meetings between Arsenal and West Ham at the Emirates have produced 27 goals, that’s almost four per game. Six of those seven clashes finished with at least three goals being scored, with the other one ending 2-0.
Over 3.5 Goals can be backed at [2.68] here, and that’s a bet I believe has a good chance of landing given that both teams will be definitely going for the win.
Returning Luka to be shown a card
Crystal Palace [2.66] v Watford [3.05]; Draw [3.3]
A clash between two teams that go into this game in confident mood after recent performances, but it’s a game that is almost impossible to call in terms of a Match Odds outcome.
Palace have recorded back-to-back 1-0 wins to lift them well above the relegation zone, just when they were looking like being sucked into that horrible battle to avoid the drop, while Watford’s survival hopes are still very much alive after last week’s stunning 3-0 win over Liverpool.
It’s a game that can easily go either way and I’m not prepared to have a wager on the outcome. The stats do point to a low-scoring affair however, but the traders haven’t missed them either and all the low-scoring options are priced accordingly.
So it’s a ‘bookings’ bet for me simply because the man in the middle will be Anthony Taylor. The 41-year-old has dished out 90 yellow cards and four reds so far this season; only Mike Dean has handed out more (94 yellows and four reds).
Luka Miliojevic has missed Palace’s recent wins with an illness, though he was fit enough to return to the bench last weekend albeit being an unused substitute. He’s fighting fit now reports Roy Hodgson and I’ll be surprised if the Eagles captain doesn’t return to the starting line-up.
Miliojevic loves to get stuck in and his physical attitude has resulted in him receiving nine yellow cards and one red this season. He averages a booking once every 2.44 games in the Premier League, so odds of 7/4 about him being carded on Saturday are worth chancing.
Take the Saints on with stingy Magpies
Southampton [1.7] v Newcastle [5.7]; Draw [4.1]
It didn’t work out for this column when we opposed Southampton at home to Aston Villa a fortnight ago when Dean Smith’s men decided to put in their worst performance of the season.
But even allowing for Villa’s dreadful performance that day they were still very much in the game at just 1-0 down until a stoppage time goal – when Villa’s keeper was up field – confirmed Southampton’s win.
I took the Saints on that day because for quite a few seasons now, and in recent months especially, they haven’t been great at St Mary’s with all their best form coming away from home. They’ve won just two of their last six on home soil with defeats to Burnley and West Ham coming in that sequence.
Southampton’s current form – home and away – is just two wins from their last eight games, with four defeats in their last five matches including last week’s hugely disappointing defeat at West Ham.
Newcastle might no appear to be in great form themselves but the fact is they’ve lost just two of their last 12 games in all competitions, and in the Premier League they rarely concede lots of goals. Steve Bruce’s men have conceded one goal or less in five of their last seven league matches.
They are a well organised side who set-up to avoid defeat first and foremost, and I have a feeling they will frustrate Southampton for large periods in this game. Opposing the home side to win at [1.71] is worth risking.
*You can follow Mike on Twitter – @MikkyMo73
